Everton and Nottingham Forest can expect a points deduction of up to three points each, according to finance expert Stefan Borson.
Former Man City finance advisor Borson spoke on White and Jordan on the teams’ violations of sustainability and profitability, which cast doubt on their chances of surviving the Premier League.
With 12 games left, Everton is currently five points clear of the relegation zone, enjoying the reduction of their 10-point deduction to six.
However, they are awaiting the outcome of their appeal on a second breach for 2021–2022, which may result in an additional deduction before the current campaign ends.
According to Premier League rules, no club can lose more than £105 million in a three-year span; if a team was in the EFL, they might lose less.
Forest has less leeway than their rivals because they were promoted from the Championship in 2022.
Although they sold Brennan Johnson to Tottenham for £45 million in the summer of 2023 to create more balance to their books, they had spent roughly £250 million on 45 players during that time and have only made £5 million in player sales for the period they have been found guilty.
It’s possible that neither team will know their destiny until the Premier League season is over, as Borson evaluates potential penalties.
When discussing Everton’s predicament with Jim White and Simon Jordan, Borson stated: “This double jeopardy thing is wrong.”
This is about natural justice; if you are sentenced for two of the three years, the second independent commission will know exactly what is fair in that situation and that they shouldn’t be penalised twice for the same period of time.
“Having said that, it will undoubtedly view a further breach as a severe concern because one of the factors considered in the PSR assessment is the trend, which has obviously worked against them in their breach because they wouldn’t have been in violation if the trend had continued to improve.
“Everton has experienced significant losses for the 2022–2023 season; they have not yet made their accounts public, but they should by the end of March. We are aware that they were signed off in November or December, and like many clubs, they have retained them.”
“We don’t know the exact figure for Everton, but we do know that they lost badly on 22/23, and as a result, they will still face harsh penalties.
“I think you can work with the assumption that there will be an additional six as the starting point. Then, you’ll deduct points for the two years that they have already had a penalty, which brings you back to two, maybe three, or possibly one (deducted).”
“It’s a fairly straightforward decision for the independent commission on Everton, and I still think they’ll lose extra points. It’s just that it will be evaluated in the overall context, and most of their arguments are unlikely to succeed because they have already been run.”
“It’s a similar sort of equation for Nottingham Forest. I’d be slightly concerned if I was a Forest fan because of the aggravating factors because it looks like they spent recklessly and that’s something that will put them further up the scale of punishment.
“Putting them further down the scale, however, is that they only breached one year of Premier League financial fair play and so when a team has been promoted you have an allowance from the EFL for two of the years and a Premier League allowance for one of the years so in essence £61million was the target and in the two years in the EFL they were there or thereabouts, so they may well get away with the first two years of the period – partly because they didn’t breach by very much and partly because the Premier League isn’t going to know how to deal with it because it’s not in their remit.
“I would think that Forest are probably looking at something like two to three points, plus the potential of some aggravating factor around the recklessness of the spending, minus the potential of what the appeal commission describe as the golden mitigation which Sheffield Wednesday had when they sold their stadium which Nottingham Forest are hinting will be Brennan Johnson.
“I think it’s very unlikely that the paperwork surrounding Johnson matches the tone of their appeal, so I suspect they will not get mitigation for Johnson and therefore it will be how big an aggravating factor is the recklessness and how do they deal with this two-year stub period when they were in the EFL.”
The hearings for the clubs are expected to take place in early March, with a decision then in April.
If appeals are then made against the decisions then it could drag on until after the season finishes.
